Exclusive: Iran’s hardliner Raisi is certain to win the presidential election at a critical juncture in the Middle East, according to polls.

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Exclusive: Iran’s hardliner Raisi is certain to win the presidential election at a critical juncture in the Middle East, according to polls.

As President Hassan Rouhani completes his second and final term and Iranians prepare to vote on Friday to elect the Islamic Republic’s next leader, an insider poll shared exclusively with This website reveals that one of the contenders is all but certain to win.

The election occurs at a critical juncture in the Middle East, particularly among Iran’s adversaries.

President Joe Biden’s newly sworn-in government is mulling re-engagement with Iran. After 12 years of Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, Israel’s new right-wing-led but broadly-represented cabinet is wrestling with foreign policy. After years of open antagonism, discreet negotiations between Iran and Saudi Arabia have sparked speculation about peace.

The referendum comes at a difficult time for the country and its people, who are still dealing with the COVID-19 situation, which is adding economic woes exacerbated by US sanctions and domestic mismanagement.

Politically, Iran’s conservative circles have solidified power with the support of the country’s top authority, Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, using the current difficulties to blame the Rouhani administration’s more moderate path—and it has worked.

According to survey data given with This website by IranPoll, an independent Toronto-based polling group, 77 percent of Iranians are expected to vote in favor of Ebrahim Raisi, the country’s chief justice and a principlist (conservative followers of the Supreme Leader).

Longtime Expediency Discernment Council Secretary Mohsen Rezaee is in second place with 12 percent, followed by former Central Bank of Iran Governor Abdolnaser Hemmati with 8% and member of parliament Amir-Hossein Ghazizadeh with 3%.

Former chief nuclear negotiator and Supreme National Security Council Secretary Saeed Jalili dropped out of the campaign just days before the election, joining three other candidates in lowering the number of candidates from seven to three. Jalili, like another conservative ex-candidate Alireza Zakani of the Majlis Research Center, has thrown his support behind Raisi.

Although Raisi’s expected victory will have a significant impact on Iran, given the country’s unique political system, a degree of continuity can be expected as long as Khamenei stays Supreme Leader, a position that only his predecessor held for life.

IranPoll’s CEO, Amir Farmanesh, stated. This is a condensed version of the information.

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