What Will Happen If Larry Elder Loses the California Recall Election?
If a majority of California voters vote to recall Governor Gavin Newsom in today’s gubernatorial recall election, Republican Larry Elder is poised to take over as the state’s next leader.
Elder, a conservative radio host who launched his gubernatorial campaign in July, has led the field of 46 recall candidates in most polls conducted in the last few months, with many voter surveys estimating his lead to be in the double digits over fellow Republicans such as businessman John Cox, former San Diego Mayor Kevin Faulconer, state assemblyman Kevin Kiley, and reality TV personality Kevin Hart.
If Newsom is defeated, Elder might become California’s first Republican governor in a decade, with registered Democrats outnumbering Republicans by nearly two to one.
Arnold Schwarzenegger, who was named governor after California’s previous gubernatorial recall election in 2003, was the most recent Republican to do so. The gap between the number of registered Democrats and Republicans in California was substantially lower when previous Democratic Governor Gray Davis was dismissed that year.
Californians were split on whether or not to remove Newsom from office, according to polls taken in the weeks following Elder’s campaign start. However, over the last month, those statistics have swung in Newsom’s favor, with recall support appearing to fall as Democrats became more determined to keep Newsom in office for the duration of his term.
Elder’s lead in the polls will be meaningless if a majority of voters in today’s recall election vote to keep Newsom in office. The recall ballot has two questions: one about Newsom’s removal and the other about which recall candidate voters would choose to replace him if he were to be recalled. Only after Newsom’s removal does the second question become relevant.
If Newsom defeats the recall, he will continue in office until January 2, 2023, when his term officially ends, and he will be eligible to seek for re-election in the 2022 midterm elections.
When asked about Elder’s plans for the future if Newsom wins the recall, Ying Ma, the campaign’s communications director, told This website that the campaign’s focus is on the current recall attempt.
“We expect Larry to win tomorrow, and we are preparing for the 2021 recall election,” Ma stated.
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