After the 2016 presidential election between Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton, the map of electoral colleges in the major swing states turned red as the Republican won the overall U.S. electoral college vote that earned him the White House.
However, the map of electoral colleges for the 2020 elections could look very different. According to forecasts by FiveThirtyEight pollsters, this year’s Democratic presidential candidate Joe Biden could win back Trump’s major swing states.
Each candidate must secure at least 270 of 538 votes in the electoral college to win the presidential election. Here Washington Newsday looks at the 2016 map and how it is expected to change around that time…
Map of the 2016 Quorum
In the run-up to the 2016 presidential elections, the eight key states were observed: Florida, Pennsylvania, Ohio, Michigan, North Carolina, Virginia, Arizona and Wisconsin.
In this race, all of these states except Virginia were won by Trump.
In the race for the 2020 presidential election, there are six swing states to watch: Arizona, Florida, Michigan, North Carolina, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin.
Each of these states has voted for Trump in 2016. However, according to the Five thirtyEight forecast, Biden could be on track to win them all in 2020.
Projection of the 2020 map of the electoral college
FiveThirtyEight’s 2020 electoral college card projection predicts that no state that voted for the Democrats in 2016 will overturn for the Republicans this year. However, eight states that voted for Trump in 2016 could turn Biden over and vote back based on the FiveThirtyEight data.
States are unlikely to flip
There are 22 states that voted republican in 2016 and are likely to do so again today, according to FiveThirtyEight.
They are: Alabama, Alaska, Arkansas, Idaho, Indiana, Iowa, Kansas, Kentucky, Louisiana, Mississippi, Missouri, Montana, Nebraska, North Dakota, Oklahoma, South Carolina, South Dakota, Tennessee, Texas, Utah, West Virginia and Wyoming.
Twenty states that voted Democrat in 2016 are likely to vote for Biden in 2020.
They are: California, Colorado, Connecticut, Delaware, Hawaii, Illinois, Maine, Maryland, Massachusetts, Minnesota, Nevada, New Hampshire, New Jersey, New Mexico, New York, Oregon, Rhode Island, Vermont, Virginia and Washington.
States that could potentially tip for Biden
According to the presidential forecast of FiveThirtyEight, there are eight states that will elect Republicans in 2016 and possibly Democrats in 2020.
Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin could potentially run to Biden, the forecast says.
Michigan has 16 votes from the electoral college. Pennsylvania has 20 and Wisconsin 10.
Meanwhile, FiveThirtyEight predicts that another five states – Arizona, Florida, Georgia, North Carolina and Ohio – could turn around and support Biden, but is less likely to do so.
Arizona has 11 votes on the electoral college, Florida has 29, Georgia 16, North Carolina 15 and Ohio 18.
According to a New York Times/Siena College poll conducted between October 26 and 31, Biden is ahead of Wisconsin with 11 points in Wisconsin, Arizona and Pennsylvania with six points and Florida with three points. The margin of error is 3 points in Arizona, 2.4 points in Pennsylvania and 3.2 points in Florida and Wisconsin.