While voters continue to cast their votes on the final day of the 2020 presidential election, polls show that Democratic candidate Joe Biden is just ahead of President Donald Trump in most major swing states.
According to the latest polls in the New York Times and Sienna College, Biden leads Trump in Arizona, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin and Florida.
In this forecast, Biden has the largest lead over Trump in the contested state of Wisconsin, as the survey data shows the former vice president to be 11 points ahead of Trump. Biden follows closely behind in both Pennsylvania and Arizona with 6 points and in Florida with only 3 percentage points.
Another survey conducted by CBS/Change Research showed Biden ahead in two other states: Michigan and North Carolina. This survey, which collected responses from 3,300 voters in Arizona, Michigan, North Carolina, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, found that Biden’s lead was between 2 and 8 percentage points in each state.
The final survey data conducted by FiveThirtyEight shows that Biden is the national leader and Pennsylvania is predicted to be the most likely state to become the turning point. In its most recent count of the state, the Polling Tracker found that Biden Trump leads by about 5 percentage points.
Further polls conducted by Reuters/Ispos from October 29 to November 2 showed that Biden is ahead in each of the above states, with the closest race being in North Carolina – where the two candidates were statistically tied.
In the survey data collected by The Guardian, Biden leads Trump in Florida, Pennsylvania, Michigan, North Carolina, Arizona and Wisconsin, but is behind Trump in Ohio and Iowa.
In Ohio, the data projected that the president would receive 48.3 percent of the vote compared to Biden’s 46.3 percent. In Iowa, the race appears to be even tighter, with Trump expected to win 47.6 percent of the vote over Biden’s 47.2 percent.
Although national poll data has consistently placed Biden ahead of Trump, the final results from these tightly held swing states are likely to determine the outcome of the election – a reality that many polls have not predicted for the 2016 presidential race.
In 2016, Trump won the elections in Arizona, Florida, Michigan, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Ohio and Iowa with mostly narrow margins. Among these states, Michigan and Pennsylvania were the closest races, with Trump receiving only 0.3 percent and 0.7 percent of the vote respectively.
Trump’s strongest Swing State victories in 2016 included Arizona, where he won 3.5 percent more votes than Clinton, and North Carolina, where he won 3.6 percent more votes.
Knowing that these Swing States would be crucial in the final days of their election campaign, both the President and Biden ended their rallies in some of the contested states.
On Monday, Biden concluded his campaign with an event in Pennsylvania, while Trump held his final rally in Kenosha, Wisconsin.