Five days before the parliamentary elections, poll data show that Joe Biden is maintaining his lead over President Donald Trump in several critical states. While Trump’s victory in 2016 over Hillary Clinton has raised skepticism about whether voter polls are trustworthy indicators of election results – given that most of these polls favored the Democratic candidate before Election Day four years ago – Biden’s current lead in both national and swing state polls is larger and more consistent than Clinton’s.
The states are considered the most important battlegrounds in 2020: Arizona, Florida, Michigan, Minnesota, North Carolina, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, while Texas appears less reliably red this year compared to previous election cycles. A handful of these states have a large number of votes and could therefore prove particularly important in determining the election results.
For this reason, Biden and Trump have focused their respective campaign efforts in recent weeks on voters in Florida, Pennsylvania, Michigan and North Carolina. Texas has the second highest number of voters after California, and the latest polls indicate a tight race in the state of Lone Star.
On Thursday, the latest election statistics published by FiveThirtyEight placed Biden ahead of Trump in most swing states, with the former vice president and current Democratic presidential candidate enjoying the greatest advantage in Michigan, Minnesota, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. FiveThirtyEight’s data showed that Biden had an average advantage of 2 percentage points in Florida, 3.5 percentage points in Arizona, 8 points in Michigan and Minnesota, 2 points in North Carolina, more than 5 points in Pennsylvania and 8.5 points in Wisconsin.
According to the survey average, Trump was ahead by 1 percentage point in Texas on Thursday morning after the poll data released earlier this week showed the two candidates were tied among likely voters. Although Texas has already seen record turnout during the early voting period, it is expected that a large number of Trump’s supporters will cast their votes on election day.
FiveThirtyEight’s election forecast suggests that Trump is the favored candidate in Texas, but Biden’s chances of winning the state’s majority of votes are higher than his opponent’s chances of securing Pennsylvania, a state that both candidates are fighting to win.
Additional survey data showed that Biden has a clear advantage over his Republican opponent in suburban communities in several swing states. The results of a recent survey conducted by Third Way and David Binder showed that Biden has a double-digit lead among suburban voters in six contested states, with Trump 11 points behind the Democratic presidential candidate in Arizona, Florida, Michigan, North Carolina, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin.