President Donald Trump is facing major problems in winning over the older voters he won in 2016, especially women over 65, allowing former Vice President Joe Biden to expand his leadership in the contested states of Florida, Pennsylvania and even North Carolina.
A new poll released Thursday night shows that Trump has been unable to close the gap with Biden in several key swing states that he won in the 2016 presidential election, largely due to his failure to win over seniors and Latinos. The latest Hill/Harris battlefield survey shows that Biden leads Trump by 51 to 46 percent in Pennsylvania, 50 to 47 percent in Florida and a slight lead over Trump in North Carolina. Concerns about a coronavirus pandemic among older women and the failure to attract more Hispanic residents in the South were cited as major factors in Trump’s declining numbers just days before the November 3 election.
In 2016, Trump enjoyed a significant 9-point lead nationwide over Hillary Clinton in the 65+ age group, 53 to 44 percent – a lead that it has since lost, particularly among older women.
According to this latest survey, Biden holds a consistent 10 point lead over Trump among Latinos in all three states, 52 percent to 42 percent.
“In Florida, Trump has a strong Latino vote for a Republican, but has problems with older women who are worried about the [coronavirus],” said The Hill pollster and policy strategist Mark Penn. “Joe Biden’s position in the major swing states going into last week suggests that Trump has not yet been able to generate enough momentum to close the gap.
The Biden campaign is pushing to maintain the leadership among Florida’s Latino voters while simultaneously voting out older voters – especially women – who voted for Trump four years ago in 2016. Biden told a Tampa crowd on Thursday that he would “turn off the virus” because both he and former President Barack Obama had ridiculed the Trump administration’s pandemic response across the state.
A majority of Florida voters, 55 percent, say that Biden will be better at managing the COVID 19 pandemic than Trump, 45 percent of whom said the same thing in a poll of 1,148 likely Florida voters this week. The Biden campaign has spawned aggressive campaigns in the suburbs of Pennsylvania and North Carolina, although Trump has very strong support among rural voters in all three states.
Trump won North Carolina in the 2016 Presidential Contest with Democratic-nominated Hillary Clinton by about 3.5 percentage points or less than 200,000 votes.
The overwhelming majority of polls published in recent weeks show that Trump is trailing in key states of the Midwest and on battlefields he narrowly won four years ago – a potential disaster for his campaign if these numbers do not drop five days before election day.
A separate survey by SurveyMonkey and Axios, released Thursday, showed that Biden is 9 points ahead of Trump in Michigan and the Democratic candidate is leading Trump by 12 points in the neighboring states of the Midwest, Minnesota and Wisconsin.
Although Biden may increase his support among older U.S. voters in Pennsylvania, North Carolina, and Florida, two of these states are recording unprecedented election results among the youngest Americans. After Florida and Texas, North Carolina led the country last week, with Florida and Texas also leading the country in most youth votes cast in the early voting process since last week.
“This is really a must for Trump. Biden can lose this state and still be all right,” Andy Jackson of the conservative Civitas Institute told Fox News on Thursday about North Carolina’s importance in the 2020 election, “The Trump campaign has put more effort into this because they have to.
Tekk.tv asked both campaigns for additional comments on the latest polls on Thursday night.