President Donald Trump lags behind Democratic challenger Joe Biden in four major swing states, whom he narrowly defeated in 2016, according to a new poll.
Just days before election day, a New York Times/Siena College poll showed Biden ahead on the major battlefields in Pennsylvania, Florida, Arizona and Wisconsin.
The survey, conducted between October 26 and 31, found that Biden is ahead by 6 percentage points in both Arizona and Pennsylvania, with 49 to 43 percent. In Florida he leads by a more modest 3 points, 47 percent to 44 percent.
However, Biden’s lead is stronger in Wisconsin, where he is 11 points ahead. Fifty-two percent of respondents said they would vote for Biden, compared to 41 percent for Trump in Wisconsin.
New NYT/Siena polls:
– Greg Sargent (@ThePlumLineGS) November 1, 2020
The margin of error is 3 points in Arizona, 2.4 points in Pennsylvania and 3.2 points in Wisconsin and Florida.
According to The Times, Biden’s lead in the four states was reinforced by the support of voters who did not show up four years ago. In Wisconsin, voters who did not cast a ballot in 2016 prefer Biden with 19 points, compared to 17 points in Florida. In Pennsylvania, Biden is ahead of these voters with 12 points and in Arizona with 7 points, ahead of Biden.
What I’m getting at here is … things look pretty locked in. Not the election results themselves! That is not fixed at all! But our final averages may not change much. Especially if you add these surveys, because they have huge sample sizes and therefore carry a lot of weight in our model.
– Nate Silver (@NateSilver538) November 1, 2020
On Twitter, FiveThirtyEight’s Nate Silver shared how the new polls affected the site’s averages.
“What I’m getting at here is … things look pretty enclosed. Not the election results themselves! That is not fixed at all!” Silver added.
“But our final averages may not change much. Especially if you add these polls, because they have huge sample sizes and therefore carry a lot of weight in our model.
It comes after recent polls have shown that Georgia, a Republican stronghold for decades, is considered a theater of war in this year’s elections.
A recent poll showed that the race in this state is very close and Trump is only one percentage point ahead. The October 28 Landmark Communications/WSB-TV poll found that 48 percent of people said they would vote for Trump if the election took place that day, compared to the 47 percent for Biden.
With his prospects for a second term looking bleak, Trump continued to attack the integrity of the election for no reason, while still claiming he would be victorious.
At rallies in Pennsylvania, he claimed there would be “chaos” while in Pennsylvania and other states, ballots would be counted after election day and “very bad things can happen.
He also criticized the U.S. Supreme Court for issuing “many disappointing opinions,” including the decision to uphold a ruling allowing some ballots sent by mail to be counted up to three days after November 3.
Our numbers look VERY good everywhere. Sleepy Joe is already beginning to withdraw from certain states. The radical left is going down!
– Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) November 1, 2020
On Twitter early Sunday, Trump again claimed that he would triumph in the election. “Our numbers look VERY good everywhere. Sleepy Joe is already beginning to withdraw from certain states. The radical left is going down,” Trump wrote.
According to the U.S. Election Project, which is closely monitoring the early voting, more than 92 million voters cast their ballots early Sunday – about two-thirds of the total votes counted in 2016.