Joe Biden is considered the bookmakers’ clear favorite to win the 2020 elections.
However, a predicted landslide victory has not deterred bettors from betting on a Donald Trump victory, which a leading bookmaker described as “the biggest election loss of the 21st century”.
Since May, Biden has been the betting favorite for victory in the 2020 presidential elections.
And with one day to go before election day, the Democratic candidate is leading the polls with an implicit 61.9 percent probability of winning before Trump, according to OddsChecker, who collects betting data from dozens of bookmakers.
The situation is similar with Betfair, which gave Biden a 60 percent chance of winning.
“A bet on Trump is a bet on by far the biggest miss of the 21st century,” said Paul Krishnamurty, professional political gambler and Betfair election expert. “The odds imply that the chance of changing the world is 34 percent.
According to Krishnamurty, 99 million Americans have already cast their votes, and 160 million are expected to complete their ballots by the end of the day.
Based on YouGov survey data collected from early- and late-day voters, the betting expert believes that this is equivalent to a Biden victory “by about 13 million votes.
“That’s 10 million more than [Hillary] Clinton’s margin of votes and corresponds to a landslide victory in any language,” he said.
Krishnamurty reiterated the importance of the swing states of Michigan, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania in determining the course of the election.
All three were won by Trump in 2016 by a razor-thin margin, but now appear to be firmly in Biden’s hands.
The former vice president has consistently polled Trump in each state since the summer.
The Democratic candidate’s leadership in both Michigan and Wisconsin is largely due to his support among female voters, Washington Newsday reported last week.
#Final national poll by YouGov/The Economist:
Among people who have already voted:
Voters on election day:
– Political Surveys (@PpollingNumbers) November 2, 2020
At this point, in order to win, Trump would have to go through a series of remarkable upheavals, including victories in the Democratic strongholds of California, Illinois, Connecticut, Maine and Delaware.
George H.W. Bush remains the last Republican to win the White House race in California, winning 51.1 percent of the vote in 1988.
In each of the seven presidential elections held over the past 32 years, the state elected Democratic candidates, who received an average of 55.4 percent of the vote.
In the last three presidential elections, support for the Democratic Party in California has grown even stronger. Barack Obama captured the state with 61 percent of the vote in 2008 and 60.2 percent when he won a second term four years later, while Hillary Clinton won 61.7 percent of the vote in 2016, compared with 31.6 percent from Trump.
Similarly, Illinois, Connecticut and Maine have voted for the Democratic candidate in every presidential election since 1992.
According to an average compiled by FiveThirtyEight, Biden Trump leads in California and Illinois with 29.2 points and 16 points respectively, while his lead in Connecticut and Delaware is 26.3 and 24.3 points.
However, not everyone agrees. Former MLB star Aubrey Huff launched a public tirade against “fake media polls” and insisted that there would be a landslide victory for the Republican incumbent.
Huff, who openly supported Trump, urged other Trump voters to ignore the polls, saying they were unreliable and would give the Democrats an excuse to question the legitimacy of Trump’s victory.
“The fake media polls have convinced the left that Joe Biden will win,” he tweeted on Monday.
“So that when he loses massively, they will scream voter fraud. A perfect excuse for looting and sedition. The media is America’s real enemy.”