President Donald Trump found himself “in big trouble” on the eve of the 2020 presidential election, with four main factors causing difficulties on his path to re-election, according to Republican strategist Colin Reed.
In an article published in Fox News on Monday, Reed said that some of the factors that helped Trump win the election four years ago were this time related to the shift in favor of Democratic presidential candidate Joe Biden. Although some political strategists said support for the president is much stronger now than in 2016, most national and swing state polls in recent weeks have shown that Biden has a head start over the president.
“Trump faces an ominous four-headed monster as the hourglass of the 2020 campaign lowers the factors that will affect the Senate elections,” Reed wrote in his article titled “4 Sign Trump and the Republican Party are in big trouble on this election day.
Reed guides readers through the four factors he believes could work against Trump when the final ballots are cast and counted by voters. These factors include Trump’s fight for traction in key states, the Biden camp outperforming the president’s own campaign, the Trump administration’s ongoing battle for control of the coronavirus pandemic, and Biden’s favoritism, which was higher this year than that of Hillary Clinton in 2016.
Trump and Biden have both provided final pushes for support in the Swing states in recent days. While Biden’s primary focus has been on virtual and drive-in events, Trump has kept to a hectic schedule of large personal rallies. According to Republican strategist John Thomas, the rallies are an important factor for Trump in Florida, where Thomas told Fox News that “neither campaign takes this state for granted.
Thomas identified Michigan and Ohio as other swing states that the president will have to work hard to preserve, and Pennsylvania as the state he said would “likely” determine the outcome of the election. He also pointed to North Carolina and Georgia as places of concern for Trump’s candidacy for re-election. The state poll averages compiled by FiveThirtyEight show that Biden has a narrow lead in both cases.
“This isn’t usually a state a Republican has to worry about, so the fact that we’re even talking about it is something else,” Thomas said about Georgia, adding that Trump’s support among black voters in the state could prove helpful for his performance on election day. When Thomas turned to North Carolina, he was a bit more outspoken about the president’s chances. “Definitely not a state that Trump would have to defend,” Thomas said about the swing state, which Trump won by more than 3 points in 2016. “But he is taking his time, and he must maintain this state or it will fall apart.
In addition to concerns about the Battlefield States, Trump’s campaign also raised about $135 million less than Biden’s September campaign, although Trump has said he can increase his campaign funds at any time if necessary. Another concern that Trump has often addressed is the coronavirus pandemic, which became a focus of Biden’s campaign earlier this year. Despite rising numbers of newly reported cases in recent days, Trump said during the last presidential debate last month that the United States is “learning to live with COVID-19. He also said that he would not support any additional suspension measures if he reappeared in office.
Reed’s last point on Biden’s favor comes from one of the main criticisms of Clinton as a presidential candidate. According to RealClearPolitics, Clinton’s average unfavorable rating in the two weeks leading up to the 2016 election has levelled off at around 54.4 percent, making it somewhat more favorable than Trump in the eyes of voters at the time, but still less favorable than Biden, who only had an average unfavorable rating of 44 percent at the beginning of November. In contrast, Trump had an unfavorable rating in early November, similar to Clinton’s, but higher than his own four years ago.
Given the hurdles that must be overcome, according to Reed Trump, he said a victory for the president would be “a greater political achievement” than his earlier victory four years ago.
Washington Newsday asked Trump’s campaign to comment, but did not receive a response in time for publication.