Final polls among voters before Election Day show that the presidential campaign in 2020 is tighter than it has been for months, but President Donald Trump could lose key states, including Pennsylvania, on Tuesday.
The final Muhlenberg College/Morning Call poll of Pennsylvania voters in this election cycle shows that former Vice President Joe Biden has a 5 point advantage – 49 to 44 percent – over Trump in the competition for the 20 votes of the state’s much-vaunted electoral college. In North Carolina, another state of Trump in 2016, Biden has a 6-point lead over Trump in the final NBC News/Marist poll of registered voters in the traditionally red state. Democrats have been suggesting for months that Arizona could be another state flipping blue for Biden on Tuesday, but the latest poll there shows Trump with a narrow lead.
Biden’s lead over Trump in Pennsylvania, according to the Muhlenberg poll, is the adjusted average of the FiveThirtyEight poll, which shows the former vice president in the all-important state with a 5.1 point lead. However, the latest RealClearPolitics poll average only shows that Biden is holding on to a 3.6-point lead over Trump State, which defeated Clinton by less than one percent or about 44,000 votes.
The pollsters of several state and national electoral groups warn that these latest polls of the 2020 presidential election cycle show larger margins of error, as they seek to push back the polls of four years ago that showed Hillary Clinton won in neutral territory, which did not happen. Democratic strategists say, however, that in states with multiple vicissitudes like Pennsylvania, the Biden campaign appears to be at the top because it focuses on voters who did not cast ballots four years ago.
The margin of error in the Muhlenberg poll is 5.5 points, so technically Biden and Trump are still in a statistical dead end. Pennsylvania’s latest The Hill/Harris Battleground State Tracker survey showed that Biden Trump leads by 5 points, 51 to 46 percent.
“They are very strategic. More strategic than the Clinton campaign in 2016,” said Donna Brazile, former vice chair of the Democratic National Committee, in an interview with the Washington Post on Friday. “You have to go back to those states and grab those people – they are the easy catch.
The final poll among Arizona voters was released Saturday by the Trafalgar Group, an organization led by Robert Cahaly, one of the few pollsters who accurately predicted Trump’s victory four years ago.
The Group’s latest Arizona poll, which shows how voters are inclined, shows Trump as the leading Biden with 48.9 percent of support versus 46.4 points of Biden.
If national poll averages were the only measure of the election outcome, Biden would clearly be favored to defeat Trump in three days. The Democratic presidential candidate is almost double digits ahead in the national election average, with a collective of polls from CNN, The Economist-YouGov, Fox News, SurveyMonkey-Tableau and Quinnipiac University giving the Democratic candidate a nine-point lead.
But Cahaly told the Wall Street Journal this week that he believes the mainstream media has once again inundated American voters with a flood of poll results favorable to Biden, a phenomenon he described as a “distortion of social desirability. He believes that respondents often lie to pollsters over the phone and that Trump is in a strong position to win over states such as Arizona and Pennsylvania.
Meanwhile, the final NBC News/Marist poll of North Carolina voters shows that Biden has a 6-point support advantage over Trump in the final poll of that state’s voters.
Tekk.tv asked both the Biden and Trump campaigns on Saturday morning for final responses to the poll results.