On the eve of Election Day, new poll results put Democratic candidate Joe Biden ahead of President Donald Trump in six key states.
The poll, which collected responses from more than 3,300 likely voters in Arizona, Florida, Michigan, North Carolina, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin between last Thursday and Sunday, found that Biden’s lead ranged from 2 to 8 percentage points. CNBC and Change Research conducted the survey, which showed an error margin of plus or minus 1.7 percent.
The latest data showed that Biden had the largest lead over Trump among likely voters in Wisconsin, a state that the president narrowly won in 2016. At that time Trump received about 47.2 percent of the state’s vote, compared to 46.5 percent of Hillary Clinton’s vote. According to the CNBC/Change Research poll, the results of which were released on Monday, respondents favored Biden with 8 percentage points. The results showed that 53 percent of likely Wisconsin voters supported the Democratic candidate, while 45 percent supported Trump.
The responses collected in Michigan gave Biden a similarly clear advantage with a 7-point lead.
In the results of five Swing State polls that appeared in the new survey, Biden received at least half of the likely voter support. In North Carolina, he received 49 percent of those voters, while Trump received 47 percent.
In 2016, the president won all six states covered in Monday’s CNBC Change Research report. Each race was very close for Trump and Clinton, with Trump and Clinton winning the popular vote by less than 1 percent in Michigan and Pennsylvania – 0.3 percent and 0.7 percent respectively. He won Arizona with 3.5 percent more votes than Clinton and North Carolina with 3.6 percent more votes, the biggest advantage among the aforementioned swing states.
Trump and Biden gave priority to voters in the Swing states in the final stages of their campaigns, with the president visiting Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin to hold rallies throughout the afternoon and into Monday night. The Democratic candidate ended his campaign with an event in Pennsylvania on Monday night, while Trump closed with a rally in Kenosha, Wisconsin.
Although Biden had an advantage over Trump in most state and national polls in the months leading up to election day, the president’s victory in 2016 – which a majority of polls did not predict – underscored the importance of votes for a nationwide victory. Florida and Pennsylvania have two of the largest electoral college presidencies, depending on their population size and how state votes could affect the overall outcome of the election. Michigan and North Carolina also have relatively high voter turnout.
