Sabato’s final projection of the crystal ball shows Biden in advance, with Georgia and North Carolina turning blue.


A final projection card from the electoral college shows Democratic presidential candidate Joe Biden ahead of President Donald Trump, with Georgia and North Carolina turning blue.

Sabato’s crystal ball, the projection map, is produced by the University of Virginia’s Center for Politics and, according to the map, is based “on a number of factors, including election history, election results, quality of candidates, modeling and reporting.

The most recent and final projection map, released Monday, shows that Biden received 321 votes, compared to 217 for Trump.

The map also shows several key swing states turning blue, bringing the former vice president in front of the required 270 votes.

According to the map, two major swing states, including Georgia and North Carolina, switched from a “toss-up” to “leans Democratic”.

In the 2016 elections, Trump won in both Georgia and North Carolina, defeated Hillary Clinton and finally won the presidency.

The switch to blue in these two states comes as polls show that the two candidates are neck and neck as election day approaches.

Two separate polls conducted by Morning Consult in these two states show Biden leading by two points in Georgia and one point in North Carolina. Biden’s lead in these two states is within the margin of error of the survey. Morning Consult surveyed 1,743 likely voters in Georgia and reported a margin of error of plus or minus 2 percentage points, while 1,982 likely voters in North Carolina were surveyed and reported a margin of error of plus or minus 1 percentage point.

On the other hand, according to the electoral college’s projection map, three other important swing states moved from a “toss-up” to a “lean Republican”. These states include Florida, Iowa and Ohio.

According to the map, Biden and the Democrats expect to win 26 states, 13 of which are listed as “safe Democrats”, six as “probable Democrats” and seven as “lean Democrats”.

In comparison, the map projects that Trump and the Republicans will win 24 states, with 13 listed as “safe Republicans,” seven as “likely Republicans” and four as “lean Republicans.

While the card projects that Biden will win more votes than Trump, the former vice president’s lead has decreased compared to earlier this month.

On October 8, the card assumed that Biden would win 127 more votes than Trump (290 vs. 163 votes for Trump) in the electoral college. The former vice-president’s lead has been reduced to 104 votes in the latest and last projection map.

In addition to Trump’s lead on the electoral college projection map, the Real Clear Politics average of several nationwide polls shows a 6.4 point lead for the former vice president, less than one day before the election.

Washington Newsday asked Biden and Trump for comments on his campaigns, but did not receive a response in time for publication.


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