The Democrats are on the verge of overthrowing the Republican majority in the Senate and expanding their control over the House of Representatives as several congressional elections are now nearing their end, according to projected data.
According to two separate congressional forecasts, the Democrats have about an eight-to-10 chance of winning a majority in the Upper House and an almost 100 percent chance of maintaining or expanding their majority in the House of Commons.
In a speech on MSNBC on Monday night, Democratic House Speaker Nancy Pelosi said: “I am confident that we will win the House of Representatives, very likely we will win the Senate, and on January 20, Joe Biden will be elected President of the United States.
FiveThirtyEight’s published forecast for the House of Representatives estimates that the Democrats have an 80 percent chance of retaining between 225 and 254 seats in the 435-seat chamber. At the time of writing, the party controls 232 seats in the House of Representatives, while the GOP holds 197 seats.
Another forecast model from The Economist shows that the Democrats have over 99 percent chance of keeping the House within the predicted range of 226 to 264 seats and just over half of the popular vote.
The average number of seats in the party below the prediction is 244, an increase of only two seats since the model was introduced on September 2. The party’s predicted share of the referendums has not changed over the same period.
Analysts in Cook’s political report also favor the Democrats’ chances of winning “everything from 5 to 20 seats,” with a likely increase of 10 to 15 seats on election night, according to Dave Wasserman of the firm.
The analyst group’s most recent count classifies 17 Republican seats as a closely contested “toss-up” contest and predicts that another 14 GOP seats will be “tipped” to the party only on election day.
Forecasts for the Senate are scarcer in comparison, but still tend strongly to support the Democratic Party’s hopes of taking control of Congress and the White House early next year.
FiveThirtyEight’s Senate forecast shows that in 75 out of 100 simulations conducted, the Democrats gain control of the upper house, while the GOP retains control in the remaining forecasts. According to the model, the Democrats are projected to have an average of 52 seats in the Senate tonight, after counting all the votes.
The Economist predicts somewhat worse chances for the Republican Party, predicting that it has only a 19 percent chance of maintaining its decisive majority in the upper house. Similar to FiveThirtyEight, the model predicts that the Democrats will control about 52 seats in the Senate with 100 seats.
Analysts in Cook’s Political Report rate nine Senate seats held by the GOP as skewed Democratic seats or “toss-up” contests when voters go to the polls, while only one Democratic seat in Alabama is expected to head to the GOP tonight.
