Democratic presidential candidate Joe Biden does not necessarily need to secure the votes in Pennsylvania, a 20 voter toggle state that is likely to decide the election, to get the 270 votes needed to win the race.
The “most plausible way” for Biden is “Nevada, Wisconsin, Michigan … then he wouldn’t have Pennsylvania,” GOP pollster Daron Shaw told the Fox News decision desk Wednesday.
At the time of writing, Joe Biden has 238 votes on the electoral college to 214 votes of Donald Trump, according to The Associated Press election data, with 270 votes needed to win the election. Of the still controversial states, Nevada offers 6 votes, Wisconsin 10 and Michigan 16, and if all three were won, Biden would have the 270 votes needed to carry the election.
At the time of writing this article, Trump was ahead of Biden in Pennsylvania with 53.4 percent (3,063,634) of the vote, while Biden had 45.3 percent (2,599,924), based on 79 percent of the expected votes counted, according to data compiled by Reuters.
In Nevada, Wisconsin and Michigan, however, Biden has a narrow lead over Trump. In Nevada, Biden has 49.3 percent of the vote (588,252), while Trump has 48.7 percent (580,605) based on at least 86 percent of the expected vote count. Nevada officials said they would not resume counting ballots until Thursday morning.
The former vice president holds 49.4 percent of the vote (1,630,389) in Wisconsin, while Trump is slightly behind with 48.8 percent (1,609,879) based on at least 99 percent of the expected votes counted.
Biden received 49.6 percent (2,622,108) of the Michigan vote, while Trump received 48.7 percent (2,577,192) based on 94 percent of the expected vote count, according to Reuters.
Many of the votes yet to be counted in Michigan are postal ballots from Detroit and its suburbs, where the Democrats traditionally have an advantage. Should Biden secure votes in Nevada and Wisconsin, a victory in Michigan, Georgia or Pennsylvania would be enough for him to win the election, according to Reuters.
Trump is said to have led in Georgia with 50.3 percent (2,389,867) of the vote, while Biden is lagging behind with 48.5 percent (2,306,880), based on 93 percent of the expected votes counted, according to Reuters.
Shaw noted on Wednesday: “According to White House estimates, the president must receive about 61 percent of the remaining votes [to win the election], and we believe that is correct. This estimate is actually pretty much in line with what we see.
“However, our estimates say that he [Trump] is online to receive about 44-45 percent of the remaining votes, which is far below what he needs.
“The president had to get to the bargaining table in at least five or six states where he was slightly behind in the polls,” Shaw said, referring to states like Florida, North Carolina, Georgia, Texas and Ohio. “He managed to hold on to most of them.”
Shaw added, “We don’t think he [Trump] is going to win in Arizona, and we think he could hold out in Georgia…those states are sort of out there. If he loses those states, he’s in a tough position. And Pennsylvania is obviously still crucial.
The chart below, provided by Statista, illustrates how close the presidential races have been historically.
The chart below, also provided by Statista, illustrates the profit margins of the U.S. presidential election since 1980.