Although the Democratic presidential candidate, Joe Biden, appears to have more support from several key demographic factors that helped President Donald Trump win the 2016 election, new polls suggest that he is less popular with Spanish and black voters than Democratic presidential candidate Hillary Clinton in 2016.
The latest national survey by Morning Consult, conducted between 28 and 31 October, shows that Biden is ahead of Trump with a margin of 8 percentage points. The Democratic candidate is supported by 52 percent of voters, while 44 percent support the incumbent Republican president.
In particular, the poll shows that Biden is much better positioned to beat Trump than Morning Consult’s final survey on Clinton in 2016 suggested. At that time, Clinton was supported by only 45 percent of voters, compared to 42 percent who supported Trump. Although Trump won Electoral College by a large margin, Clinton won the popular vote by 2.1 percentage points in the last election, meaning that Morning Consult’s final national survey was less than 1 percent off.
In its latest analysis, Morning Consult compared CNN’s 2016 election exit data with the latest poll results for the 2020 election, showing that Clinton had more support from black and Hispanic voters than Biden does now. While 89 percent of black voters supported Clinton in 2016, 4 percent less (85 percent) supported Biden in 2020. Among Hispanic voters, Biden is 3 percent lower than Clinton, who was supported by 66 percent, as opposed to 63 percent who support the current Democratic candidate.
At the same time, Biden is more popular among white, rural, elderly, male, female and military voters than Clinton was in the last election.
Among male voters, 49 percent support Biden as opposed to 47 percent who supported Clinton. While 49 percent of female voters supported the Democratic candidate for 2016, 54 percent supported Biden in this election. Support for the former vice president is 40 percent among rural voters, while support for Clinton was 36 percent. Exactly half of the over-65s support Biden, compared to only 41 percent who supported Clinton. Among white voters, Biden is now 44 percent, compared to 40 percent who voted for the Democratic candidate. And among voters in military budgets, Biden is ahead of Clinton at 5 percent – or 44 percent to 39 percent.
The final survey by Morning Consult also shows that Biden is ahead of Trump in several major swing states that Clinton lost in 2016. Biden leads Trump with about 6 percentage points in Florida, about 7 in Michigan, about 13 in Wisconsin and about 9 in Pennsylvania. These four contested states put their money on former Democratic President Barack Obama in 2008 and 2012 before voting red card for Trump in 2016.
The FiveThirtyEight survey average shows a very similar national lead in favor of Biden when compared to Morning Consult data. The Democratic candidate averages 8.5 percentage points ahead of the candidate supported by nearly 52 percent of voters, compared to 43.5 percent who support Trump. The Real Clear Politics average shows a somewhat tighter national race, with Biden leading the way with 6.5 percent – or 50.9 percent to 44.4 percent.