President Donald Trump arrives on election day with a deficit in the national polls, but former MLB star Aubrey Huff expects a landslide victory for the Republican incumbent.
Huff, who openly supported Trump, expects the president to be represented in all but three states and win 487 votes, almost double the 270 votes needed for an overall majority.
“This is my serious prediction. The biggest shock is that California will flip red,” the two-time World Series winner tweeted on Monday night along with a U.S. Electoral College map on which every state except Washington, Oregon, New York and Washington, D.C. was colored red.
This is my serious prediction! The biggest shock is that California will turn red! #election2020 pic.twitter.com/VaUitEGNDz
– Aubrey Huff (@aubrey_huff) November 2, 2020
To relativize Huff’s assertion: No candidate has won more than 400 votes since George W.H. Bush won 426 in 1988, and if Trump won 487 votes, that number would be the fourth largest in the history of the U.S. election.
Franklin D. Roosevelt won 523 votes when he entered his second term in 1936, Richard Nixon won 520 votes when he was re-elected in 1972, and Ronald Reagan came to power in 1980 after receiving 489 votes.
Four years ago Trump lost the popular vote but won the White House race after receiving 304 votes.
According to FiveThirthyEight’s final national forecast, Democratic presidential candidate Joe Biden is on track to win 348 to Trump’s 190 votes, giving Biden a 90 percent chance of becoming the next U.S. president.
For Huff’s prediction to be true, Trump would have to accept a series of upheavals, including victories in the Democratic strongholds of California, Illinois, Connecticut, Maine and Delaware. It is worth noting that Trump in Maine received one of the three votes of Hillary Clinton in the electoral college.
George H.W. Bush is still the last Republican to win the White House race in California, receiving 51.1 percent of the vote in 1988.
In each of the seven presidential elections held over the past 32 years, the state elected Democratic candidates, who received an average of 55.4 percent of the vote.
In the last three presidential elections, support for the Democratic Party in California has increased even more. Barack Obama captured the state with 61 percent of the vote in 2008 and 60.2 percent when he won a second term four years later, while Hillary Clinton won 61.7 percent of the vote in 2016, compared with 31.6 percent from Trump.
Similarly, Illinois, Connecticut and Maine have voted for the Democratic candidate in every presidential election dating back to 1992.
According to an average compiled by FiveThirtyEight, Biden Trump leads in California and Illinois with 29.2 points and 16 points respectively, while his lead in Connecticut and Delaware is 26.3 and 24.3 points.
At the national level, the statistical website has Biden ahead by just over nine percentage points, with about 52 percent supporting the Democratic candidate and 43 percent supporting the president.
However, Huff urged the other Trump voters to ignore the polls, saying they were not reliable and would give the Democrats an excuse to question the legitimacy of Trump’s victory.
“The fake media polls have convinced the left that Joe Biden will win,” he added in a separate tweet.
“So that when he loses big, they will scream voter fraud. A perfect excuse for looting and rioting. The media is America’s real enemy.”
Huff has long been an outspoken Trump supporter, and in November of last year he posted a picture of him holding a pierced target in his hand on Twitter, suggesting that he was teaching his boys how to use a gun in the “unlikely event” that Bernie Sanders defeats Trump in the presidential election – Sanders eventually withdrew from the Democratic Party primaries in April before supporting Biden.
Last week, he praised Green Bay Packers former quarterback Brett Favre for supporting Trump and suggested that the majority of MLB players and staff would agree with the sentiment.
Update 11/30/20, 10:45 ET: This article has been updated to add information about the distribution of votes from Maine’s voting colleges in 2016.