Kenya’s sugar industry faces a critical crisis as domestic production plummets by 27%, triggering fears of an imminent price hike to Sh250 per kilo. The sharp drop is attributed to a combination of cane shortages and unexpected factory closures, which have left consumers bracing for a cost-of-living crunch.
The latest data from the Sugar Directorate reveals that production fell from 62,000 metric tonnes in the previous quarter to just 45,000 tonnes in December 2025. The decline is primarily due to a scarcity of raw material after millers were forced to prematurely harvest immature cane in 2024. With cane fields running dry and factories struggling to meet demand, sugar prices have already risen at the factory gate, with the cost of a 50kg bag climbing from Sh6,500 to Sh7,200 in just two weeks.
Market Fears and Government Response
The impact is being felt across the country, with retailers warning that consumer prices could hit Sh250 per kilogram by February if the supply gap is not addressed. This price increase is expected to have a ripple effect, raising the cost of essential items like bread, soft drinks, and confectionery.
To stabilize prices, the government is reportedly considering opening a duty-free import window. However, this move has sparked concerns among local farmers, who fear it will flood the market with cheaper imported sugar, undermining domestic production. Critics argue that the government’s response is coming too late, as the closure of major mills, including Mumias and Nzoia Sugar, has compounded the crisis.
A Deeper Crisis for Kenyan Sugar
The current shortage highlights the vulnerabilities of Kenya’s sugar sector, which has been plagued by poor planning, political interference, and agronomic failures. With the new crop not expected to mature until mid-2026, Kenya’s sugar woes are expected to deepen, leaving consumers to contend with rising costs for the foreseeable future.
