Crypto-controlled prediction markets met with massive interest as users bet on the outcome of the US elections.
Volume has skyrocketed on numerous platforms as new real-world events affect user bets.
On platforms like Augur, FTX and Polymarket, millions of presidential candidate based tokens swapped hands.
The US presidential election has dominated the headlines in the last few weeks and especially in the last few days. But although it officially has no direct connection to the crypto or block chain industry, the industry is still heavily influenced by it. Especially when it comes to speculation and predictions about who will be the next president.
There is no doubt that block-chain-based elections would be faster, safer, cheaper and easier – even the biggest names in the crypto world agree on that. But while elections are still far from being based on block-chain technology, speculation and betting about the candidates and who could win the presidential race is not.
In fact, the crypto-based prediction markets have been overrun with election-related bets. Even Vitalik Buterin from Ethereum commented on this: “Regardless of who wins from here, I definitely think that this time the prediction markets have proven to be more accurate than the polls/models”.
Regardless of who wins from here, I definitely think that this time the prediction markets have proven to be more accurate than the surveys/models – vitalik.eth (@VitalikButerin) November 4, 2020
Futures brands experience an increase in volume and volatility
Due to recent events, the brands for the president’s future have been in great turmoil as the votes came from all parts of the US. TRUMP futures recently experienced a large increase from $0.38 to $0.80 on the crypto derivatives exchange FTX. However, when Biden gained the upper hand, TRUMP Futures quickly crashed.
And so the TRUMP coins, which should actually have a redeemable value of $1 if Trump should win in the end, are currently only trading at $0.09.
TRUMP coins worth $16 million were recently traded on the FTX, while the BIDEN coins reached a value of approximately $6 million.
Activity also increased on an Augur forecasting platform based on Ethereum. Recently, a volume of approximately $8.6 million and an open interest of $4.75 million was reported.
This year’s election markets have surpassed the previous OI and trading volume records of Augur v1 from the 2018 housing market ($2.5 million & $6 million). Thank you to everyone who has used or tried Augur for the first time, we hope you will stay around! https://t.co/3jFtwWVaLw– Augur (@AugurProject) November 4, 2020
Given the popularity of crypto and block-chain based prediction markets, many believe that this type of betting could become a new trend and that similar bets are likely to become much more common.