They have been involved in or associated with politics for more than 50 years. What do you think about the election on Tuesday? I am more afraid for my country than ever before. Another four years of Donald Trump would be disastrous. Nonetheless, I suspect Joe Biden will win.
But in 2016, the polls will show…. The polls are better now, and Biden’s lead is greater than Hillary Clinton’s.
What about the electoral college? He also leads in the so-called “swing” states that gave Trump a 2016 electoral college victory.
Will Trump participate in the election? Yes. He will be contesting fraudulent postal ballots in each swing state with a Republican governor or a Republican legislature. He will tell them not to confirm Biden voters until fraudulent ballots are eliminated.
What is his goal? To deny Biden the majority of the electorate and to make the decision in the House of Representatives, where the Republicans are likely to have the majority of the state delegations.
Will it work? No, because technically Biden only needs a majority of the already appointed voters. Even if the controversial ones are excluded, I still expect him to get a majority.
What about late ballots? Trump has demanded that all ballots be counted by midnight on election day. It is not up to him. It is up to the legislators and courts of the individual states. Most will count the ballots as long as they are stamped no later than election day.
Will these questions end up in the Supreme Court? Some might, but the judges know that they must appear impartial. Last week they rejected a motion to extend the deadline for receiving postal ballots in Wisconsin, but allowed extensions in Pennsylvania and North Carolina.
But the Supreme Court ruled in favor of George W. Bush in the 2000 election. The last thing the Chief Justice John Roberts wants is another Bush vs. With now six Republican appointees to the court, he knows that the legitimacy of the court hangs in the balance.
Trump has called for 50,000 partisans to monitor the polls while the people vote, calling these recruits the “Army for Trump. Do you expect violence or intimidation? Not enough to influence the outcome.
Assuming you’re right and Biden wins. Will Trump cave? I doubt it. He can’t stand to lose. He’ll keep claiming the election was stolen from him.
Will the Democrats take back the Senate? Too close to call.
If not, can Biden make a difference? Biden was a senator for 36 years and has worked with many of the current Republicans. He believes he can persuade them to work with him.
Is he right? I’m afraid he’s too optimistic. The GOP is not what it used to be. It is now answerable to a much more conservative, Trumpian base.
If the Republicans keep the Senate, what can we expect from a Biden government? The reversal of the Trump ordinances and regulations that will restore environmental protection and occupational safety and strengthen the Affordable Care Act. Biden will also fill the executive branch with competent people who will make a big difference. And he will put an end to Trump’s isolationist, self-reliant foreign policy.
And if the Democrats take back the Senate? Keep your expectations low. Both Clinton and Obama had Democratic Congresses in their first two years, but spent all their political capital cleaning up the economic mess left behind by their Republican predecessors. Biden will inherit even greater economic chaos and a pandemic. With luck, he will pass a major stimulus package, reverse the Trump Republican tax cuts for the rich, and distribute and administer a COVID 19 vaccine. All important, but nothing earth-shattering.
If Biden wins, he will be the oldest man to ever be president. Will this be a problem for him in governing? I don’t see why. He’s healthy. But I doubt that he is seeking a second term, which would affect the way he governs.
How do you mean? He’ll be more likely to be a transitional than a transformational president. He will not change the power structure in society. He will not lead a movement. He says he will be a “bridge” to the next generation of leaders, by which I think he means that he will try to stabilize the country, perhaps heal some of the wounds of the nation, so that he can hand over the keys to the visionaries and movers of the future.
Will Trump just fade into the sunset? Hardly. He and Fox News will remain the most powerful forces in the GOP, at least for the next four years.
And what happens if your whole premise is wrong and Trump wins a second term? Then America and the rest of the world are in serious jeopardy. I prefer not to think about it.
Robert B. Reich is an American political commentator, professor and author. He served in the governments of Presidents Gerald Ford, Jimmy Carter, and Bill Clinton. Reich’s latest book, The System: Who Rigged It, How We Fix It, has now been published.
The views expressed in this article are those of the author….