Greater Manchester Mayor Andy Burnham may be on the cusp of a return to Westminster, but his path is far from straightforward. Burnham, long considered a possible rival to Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer, has faced increasing speculation after Gorton and Denton MP Andrew Gwynne announced his resignation due to health reasons. This decision sets the stage for a by-election, sparking debate over Burnham’s potential candidacy.
The Labour Party has made it clear that any attempt by Burnham to stand for the seat will follow the usual candidate selection process, with no special treatment given to the mayor. Health Minister Stephen Kinnock affirmed this position, stating, “It will be like any other selection process,” and emphasized that Burnham remains “an incredibly talented and effective leader” in his current role as mayor.
By-Election Implications
Gwynne’s departure opens the door for Burnham to contest the seat, which Labour comfortably secured in the 2024 election. However, his candidacy hinges on approval from Labour’s National Executive Committee (NEC), which, some insiders believe, is influenced by allies of Starmer. While Kinnock and other party figures insist the process will remain impartial, reports suggest that some of Starmer’s supporters may be working behind the scenes to block Burnham’s bid, fearing his candidacy could destabilize the government.
Despite these challenges, several Labour backbenchers have rallied behind Burnham, with one describing his potential return as “lovely” and a much-needed shift in party fortunes. Prime Minister Starmer has avoided commenting directly on the issue, focusing instead on Burnham’s effective leadership as mayor of Greater Manchester.
If Burnham were to stand for the seat and win, it would likely trigger significant political shifts. The mayor would be forced to relinquish his role as mayor of Greater Manchester, as the position also includes the title of police and crime commissioner, preventing him from holding both offices simultaneously. This could leave a vacancy that, observers warn, may be another opportunity for Farage’s party to target.
The by-election itself will be no walk in the park. While Gwynne won his seat with 51% of the vote, national support for Labour has significantly declined, and Reform UK has already vowed to challenge the seat aggressively.
