With the Academy Award nominations set to be announced on Thursday, the race for Best Picture remains as competitive as ever. Six films appear almost certain to earn a nod in the category: *One Battle After Another*, *Sinners*, *Hamnet*, *Marty Supreme*, *Frankenstein*, and *Sentimental Value*. However, a few surprises could still shake up the final list, especially with the unpredictable nature of the PGA and DGA nominations shifting the dynamics in recent weeks.
Surprises and Long Shots
The big question heading into the nominations is whether any films that weren’t expected to make it will sneak in. Two such contenders, *F1* and *Weapons*, have gained traction among both critics and moviegoers. While *F1* has earned a nomination from the Producers Guild of America (PGA), its appeal remains largely technical, focusing on the immersive racing experience. Despite its box-office success, the film struggles with a lack of narrative fervor, making it a tough sell for voters accustomed to passion-driven stories. Without a strong critical or awards-driven hook, its chances at Best Picture seem slim, despite its nomination for PGA.
In contrast, *Weapons*, the breakout hit from director Zach Cregger, has made a more significant impact in the race. A commercial and critical success, it has transformed into an acting contender, particularly with Amy Madigan’s supporting role. With a unique narrative and strong fan support, *Weapons* seems poised to secure a Best Picture spot. Its non-IP status and unanticipated success make it one of the most talked-about dark horses this season.
Another film to watch is *Train Dreams*, a quiet success story that has garnered a growing following since its Sundance debut. The film, with its emotionally charged and Malickian rhythms, has seduced both festival-goers and critics. After its surprise PGA nomination, *Train Dreams* is now considered a strong contender to sneak into the final ten. The film’s momentum has made it a favorite among those hoping for a breakout independent film to make the cut.
International Contenders and Shifting Predictions
The international field also presents intriguing possibilities. While *It Was Just An Accident*, an Iranian drama that won the Palme d’Or, was once a consensus pick for Best Picture, its omission from both the PGA and DGA nominations raises questions about its Oscar prospects. Despite its timely themes and strong international support, particularly given the Academy’s growing interest in global cinema, the film has lost momentum in recent weeks.
Meanwhile, Brazil’s *The Secret Agent* has gained significant international backing, particularly in Europe. Its passionate supporters, along with a possible Best Actor nomination for Wagner Moura, have led to predictions that it could secure a Best Picture nomination. Director Kleber Mendonça Filho is also seen as a potential nominee, bolstering the film’s chances in this competitive category.
While the race for the final few spots remains unpredictable, four films are currently considered the top contenders for the big prize: *One Battle After Another*, *Sinners*, *Hamnet*, and *Marty Supreme*. Experts agree that *One Battle After Another* will likely be the frontrunner when the Best Picture race culminates on March 15, 2026.
As the final nominations approach, these films—along with *Train Dreams*, *Weapons*, and *The Secret Agent*—represent the changing landscape of the Oscar race, with surprises and upsets looming large as the Academy’s voters prepare to make their final decisions.
